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Trump’s OBBB Success Is Even Bigger Than It Appears

July 11, 2025

President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill success is best measured by the two previous administration’s failures. In his first term, Trump failed to repeal and replace Obamacare. In his only term, President Biden struggled for a year and a half to pass a vastly whittled-down version of his proposed domestic spending agenda. In contrast to both, Trump has just passed his agenda largely intact in less than six months. 

In 2017, in an attempt to deliver on his campaign promise to end Obamacare, President Trump and congressional Republicans took numerous runs at repealing and replacing ACA. Ultimately, the effort failed, finally ending at year’s end when even the so-called “skinny bill” went down in the Senate. 

In 2021, seeking to leverage the COVID pandemic, President Biden proposed his multi-trillion-dollar Build Back Better agenda. When it bogged down, Biden’s proposal was scaled back, the name changed. The House finally passed a plan late in November 2021, only to see it grind to a halt in the Senate. Ultimately, Biden would wind up with a renamed and reduced Inflation Reduction Act in August 2022; it was a pyrrhic victory at best. 

All three attempts at agenda-fulfilling legislation were attempted with the president’s party holding narrow congressional majorities. In 2017, Republicans held a 241-194 majority in the House and a 51-49 edge in the Senate. In 2021, Democrats held a 10-seat House majority and a Senate majority only by virtue of VP Kamala Harris’ tie-breaking vote. In 2025, Republicans held a 220-215 House majority after November’s election and 53-47 majority in the Senate. 

Yet despite his party’s narrow congressional majorities, Trump was able to secure in just months a huge win, one that included many of his biggest campaign promises. 

Most importantly, Trump was able to avoid the largest tax increase in U.S. history from taking place in 2026. Without this, individuals would have seen their rates return to pre-TCJA levels and the economy would have undoubtedly suffered. He got additional tax cuts, too (notably his promises on tips and overtime). He achieved spending cuts by way of overdue reforms (such as work requirements on adult Medicaid recipients) and largely ending Biden’s green energy giveaways. He scored sizable ideological wins: increased defense spending, border wall funding, immigration enforcement, increased domestic mining and energy provisions. And the bill codified 28 of his executive orders into law. 

But as big as his wins were, perhaps biggest of all was that he didn’t lose. To appreciate this point, look back at what happened in the previous two administrations.

In the 2018 midterms, Trump lost the House and Democrats won a 36-seat majority. In the 2022 midterms, Biden lost the House and Republicans won a nine-seat majority. Without full control of Congress, both Trump and Biden lost any real chance of advancing a legislative agenda. Both, too, were shadowed by an opposition-controlled House that gave an “official” voice to their opponents. And both were nagged by oversight that generated headlines that further sapped administration momentum.

That there were no presidential legislative victories in the two years leading up to the next elections is hardly coincidental to their fates: neither won reelection – a feat not matched by successive incumbents since Ford (1976) and Carter (1980) – and before that, Cleveland (1888) and Harrison (1892). 

Perhaps even more consequential to Trump’s fate in 2020 and Biden’s in 2024 was the qualitative cost of their earlier major legislative defeats. Yes, there is a squandering of political capital; however, the loss goes deeper still.

Both lost momentum at crucial times. Every administration takes office claiming a mandate for their agenda. To have such momentum glaringly dispelled is devastating. It can also be self-fulfilling. Members of Congress who bucked their party’s president can feel free to continue doing so. While members of the opposing party feel validated in doing so. 

The loss of momentum extends well beyond Capitol Hill. More than just a sting of defeat, there is also a stench. Supporters are deflated; they don’t care about the details of narrow congressional majorities. They only see the results – or lack thereof – and the defeated president risks the worst of all labels: becoming “just another politician.” 

Trump did not get everything he wanted in the One Big Beautiful Bill: Senate rules and narrow majorities in both bodies guaranteed this would happen. But he got a tremendous amount. 

Trump is now also poised for other victories. In Congress, these will only be easier after his big win – plus, winning now only helps Republicans’ chances of retaining control of Congress in the 2026 midterms. The Supreme Court and executive actions could also continue his momentum. 

Yes, Trump won big with his One Big Beautiful Bill. Yet, he arguably won just as much by simply not losing. 

This article was originally published by RealClearPolitics and made available via RealClearWire.
J.T. Young is the author of the recent book, Unprecedented Assault: How Big Government Unleashed America’s Socialist Left from RealClear Publishing and has over three decades’ experience working in Congress, the Department of Treasury, the Office of Management, and Budget, and representing a Fortune 20 company.
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